Retailers fear a bleak mid-winter for the sector as sales fall

For millions of families this weekend marks the start of the Autumn half term. When schools return and the clocks have gone back the so called “Golden Quarter” for retailers will begin in earnest. It is the period when profits are made and banked - in a good year. But it is not a good year.

Today’s downbeat retail figures show that the consumer retrenchment is already well under way. Higher energy bills from October -albeit capped at an average of £2,500 for now - and the rolling wave of remortgaging - will dig ever deeper chunks out of household budgets. We have already seen the devastating impact of consumer fright on the “big ticket” furnishing sector, often the “canary in the mine” warning indicator for retail.

It seems likely that that the pain will cascade down to other sectors with smaller average purchase prices with just the supermarkets keeping their heads above water as shoppers shell out to celebrate the first “proper” Christmas in three years.

The Black Friday bonanza will be an interesting test of how far retailers will be prepared to take the hit on their margins to keep the tills ticking over.

The World Cup should also provide out a spring in the nation’s step if England or Wales do well and may provide a temporary respite.

It is beyond Christmas that the real test begins. January and February are always tough months for the sector as credit card bills arrive after the splurge. Next year, more than ever, they will be all about survival.